Monday, July 3, 2017


IN TIMES of economic uncertainty, investors have always turned to gold.
It is renowned as a storer of value, the one asset that will consistently ride out soaring prices and volatile stockmarkets. Unlike almost any other commodity, its price isn't affected by inflation and is not linked to shares.
And if fears over the Chinese economy, a drop in growth of the emerging economies, or prolonged periods of low rates in the U.S. are realised, it could soon be the asset of choice for investors again.
If you own it already -- whether through a fund or because you've bought jewellery or a gold bar as an investment -- then you're holding an asset that should ride out the good times and the bad.
Currently, though, with the economies of many countries performing well and fears of deflation in the UK, savers have been put off it.
In the midst of the financial crisis in 2011, the price of gold soared to a record high, eventually hitting more than $1,900 an ounce. Today, it stands at around $1,176.
That drop has pummelled gold funds, which are down as much as 70 pc over the past three years.
However, when you invest in gold you need to remember that it isn't about growing your money -- it's about protecting it. It works as aabout protecting it. It works as a kind of insurance and, as with any insurance, there is a cost to owning it: gold doesn't pay interest or a dividend, and the money you hold in it is missing out on returns you could get elsewhere.
Figures from BullionVault show that a saver with 10pc of their cash in gold and the rest split between equities and bonds will miss out on the big peaks in the market when times are good. Their average annual return from 1975 to 2014 would be 13.7pc.
For a saver with no gold, that rises to a slightly higher 14.2 pc.
But the investor with the gold would fare better in bad years. In the worst year over that period, they would lose 7.6pc of their money, whereas the investor with no gold would be down 13.2 pc.
The dilemma is whether it is worth missing out in the good years to have the reassurance that you'll limit how much you lose in a bad year.
Laith Khalaf, senior investment analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says: 'The events which drive demand for gold are by their nature unpredictable, but it is difficult to see a recurrence of the perfect storm of low interest rates, currency debasement and turmoil in stock markets which propelled it to its 2011 high.' The prospects for gold largely hinge on what the U.S. Federal Reserve does next -- if interest rates go up, it's likely the price of the metal will come down.


0 التعليقات:

Post a Comment

Popular Posts

Recent Posts

Recent Posts Widget